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Ag Marketing IQ: Big corn crops on two hemispheres are repainting the global trade picture. With export bottlenecks and increased domestic ethanol demand in Brazil, U.S. corn exporters could see new opportunities this fall. Market analysts suggest American farmers could benefit from this temporary trade disruption as Brazilian shipments lag despite their bumper crop.

Those surprised by this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report should get ready: Before any possible cuts in the 2025-26 corn crop, the market will likely see the 2024-25 global crop grow bigger and likely set a new record high after Brazilian farmers finish harvesting a massive corn crop.

Though Brazil’s second corn crop was nearly 85% harvested last week and sources across the country are reporting higher-than-expected yields, the USDA surprisingly kept its August estimate for Brazil’s production unchanged at 132 million metric tons. Two days after that report, Conab increased its projection for Brazil’s 2024-25 production by nearly 5 MMT, bringing it up to 137 MMT. That’s not only higher than the USDA’s current estimate, but it was also the first time this season that Conab’s forecast has exceeded USDA’s. This is a notable shift on two fronts:

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