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Which Grain Market Strategies Work in a Down Market?

The grain market has been in a supply-increasing phase since April 2022, with rising carryout levels for both corn and soybeans, which is reflected in the downturn trend in prices.

Over the past three years, the U.S. corn supply has grown significantly:

• The 2022-23 crop year ended with a 1.36-billion-bushel carryout.

• The 2023-24 crop year rose to 1.76 billion bushels, an increase of 400 million bushels.

• The 2024-25 crop year then started with 1.76 billion bushels and is now up178 million bushels to 1.938 billion bushels. The increase is driven by a jump in yield, with the average rising from 177.3 to 183.1 bushels per acre, driving higher production despite a drop of 3.8 million harvested acres.

Now the concern is: What happens if we start next year’s carryout at 1.938?

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