News & Publications
February 27, 2026 |
What could slow U.S. corn exports in 2025-26?
Ag Marketing IQ: Ukraine, Argentina, and Brazil could dent U.S. corn demand, but to make an impact, more than one country would have to increase production, lower prices, and make favorable tariff moves.
U.S. corn exports continue to show exceptional strength as we move deeper into the 2025-26 marketing year. The latest export inspections for the week ending Feb. 19 reported 78.9 million bushels of corn inspected for export — well above the prior week’s 59.2 mbu, and much stronger than the 45.9 mbu from a year earlier. Year‑to‑date inspections now total 1.486 billion bushels compared with 1.020 bbu last year, underscoring a fundamentally stronger export pace.
Recent export sales data also highlight the impressive start for the current export program. In the week ended Feb. 12, corn net sales reached 57.9 mbu, above the implied weekly 29.3 mbu needed to meet the USDA’s projection for the current marketing year. Unshipped sales stand at 1.020 bbu, compared with 885 million at this point last year. These combined metrics — robust shipments and resilient sales — explain why the USDA raised its 2025-26 export forecast by 100 mbu to a record 3.30 bbu in the February WASDE report.
But even with a record export forecast, the remainder of the export program may face potential risks. As we move into the second part of the marketing year, and the new corn crop becomes available, several factors could still weaken U.S. export momentum, especially as Argentina and Brazil harvest their corn crop and compete with lower prices in the international market.
