News & Publications
April 4, 2025 |
What if USDA yield assumptions are too optimistic?
Ag Marketing IQ: Export disruptions as a result of tariffs notwithstanding, demand and supply forecasts hinge on good weather and strong production.
In the wake of USDA’s big reports, first-glance impressions are:
Soybeans. Implications for the soybean stocks figure on Q2 residual use is fairly small and most are leaving the soybean residual component of the balance sheet in the 39-to-40-million-bushel range, matching USDA’s March WASDE number. The impact from the report on carry-out is negligible and the trade will continue to monitor exports and crush to see if adjustments to the current 380 mbu soybean ending stocks are warranted.
Corn. The March WASDE was using a feed/residual forecast of 5.775 billion bushels, 30 million less than the 2023-24 total. Disappearance during Q1 2024-25 was about 145 million bushels lower at 2.34 billion, suggesting a December-August total of around 3.34 bbu, or 175 mbu more than in 2023-24. This could have been supported by slightly more Grain Consuming Animal Units in 2024-25 (up 400 thousand, or 0.4% to 100.7 million units) along with forecasts for corn to fall 20 cents per bushel.
