News & Publications

News & Publications

February 21, 2023 | Ryan Fogel

Confirmation bias in commodities

Confirmation bias in commodities

Commodities have been in a bull market for three straight years. This is no secret to anyone who sells grain. While the last three years have been great for farmers, eventually the party has to end.

One commonality I see with grain marketing is a reluctance to acknowledge that things can change. When times are great, most believe the trend will continue. When times are bad, you never expect it to get better. This phenomenon is called confirmation bias.

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